TAAX currently operates three daily flights to Japan, including two daily flights to Tokyo Narita and one daily flight to Osaka. TAAX is fortunate in that it added a second daily Narita flight at the end of Mar-2015 and upgraded Osaka from five to seven weekly flights. If these additions had come slightly later they would have been blocked as part of the new restrictions imposed by Japanese authorities.
The additional capacity to Tokyo and Osaka was made possible as TAAX took its third A330-300. TAAX is planning to add four more A330s by the end of 2015, giving it a year-end total of seven aircraft. But the AirAsia X Group may need to relook at aircraft allocations for the remainder of 2015 as TAAX was planning to use some of the four additional aircraft to pursue further expansion in Japan, starting with a new daily service to Sapporo, and potentially South Korea.
TAAX is still able to launch Sapporo on 1-May-2015, which is made possible by the upcoming delivery of its fifth aircraft. The impact on new routes which were already approved but not yet launched is somewhat of a grey area. But TAAX has stated that it will only be able to operate Sapporo until the end of Jun-2015. TAAX explained that it had only had secured approval from Japanese authority for the initial two months when the restrictions were implemented and that it is issuing refunds to passengers that were booked on Sapporo flights for 2H2015.
TAAX will also be unable to launch any other new route to Japan or add more capacity to Tokyo or Osaka until the newly implemented restrictions are eased. It has not yet announced any new route for Jul-2015 which will be needed to replace the Sapporo service. TAAX also has not yet announced routes for its sixth or seventh aircraft. But TAAX has stated that it is aiming to launch services to secondary cities in China.
Clearly TAAX will need to quickly pursue expansion in new markets. Korea and Japan are important markets for TAAX and are the only countries currently served by the carrier.
The setbacks in Korea and Japan mean NokScoot will have to rely entirely on the China market for at least the next several months. For now it has stopped selling flights to Seoul through Oct-2015 but it could be several more months before Korea lifts restrictions on Thai carriers.
China has never moved to block airlines from countries which fail an ICAO audit. Media reports in early Apr-2015 that said China was following Japan and South Korea in placing new restrictions on Thai carriers were not correct.
But China has been implementing new more restrictive measures against foreign carriers, particularly charter carriers. This is not related to the ICAO audit in Thailand or other countries but has impacted some Thai carriers as well as charter carriers or start-ups in other Southeast Asian countries including Cambodia.
China has recently rejected several requests for additional charter flights from Thai airlines. But this is in response to a concern over the operation of specific airlines. China has not blocked expansion from any scheduled carrier. The two main Thai carriers operating scheduled flights to China, Thai Airways and Thai AirAsia, are not likely to face any restrictions by Chinese authorities.
The NokScoot case is slightly different as NokScoot has not yet launched services to China or operated any scheduled flights on any route. Over the last year China has begun requiring new airlines to complete a certain number of months (typically six) of operations and a certain number of flights (at least 100; in some cases more) before being approved to operate into China.
NokScoot’s inability to operate charters to Japan in the lead-up to its planned launch of scheduled services to China could potentially impact its ability to meet this requirement. But China could potentially authorise NokScoot without enforcing the requirement as it has not been universally applied.
NokScoot could also potentially take on charter contracts to countries other than South Korea and Japan. NokScoot has delayed the planned launch of thrice weekly services to Nanjing from 5-May-2015 to 2-Jun-2015. No reason for the delay has been provided but it could potentially give NokScoot enough time to operate enough charter flights to other countries to meet the Chinese requirement.