中國封城阻止武漢肺炎擴散 專家:難度極高

(中央社北京24日綜合外電報導)中國當局為因應武漢肺炎疫情,湖北省已有10多座城市的大眾運輸停止營運,形同封城。有專家認為要確實隔離整座城市難度極高,且現階段還無法判定封城有無成效。

美聯社報導,率先宣布封城的武漢市,現在火車站與機場都已關閉,渡船、地鐵、客運服務全數暫停。在這座擁有1100萬人口的城市,以往繁忙的街道、商場、餐廳與其他公共場所,都顯得異常安靜。目前警方會檢查所有進城車輛,但並未完全封鎖道路。

中國官員至今都未宣布這波封城會實施多久。雖然中共政府採取全面性措施並非首例,但大規模隔離在全球仍屬罕見。因為這種做法可能侵犯人民自由,效果如何也不清楚。

英國廣播公司(BBC)報導,武漢不僅是中國第7大城市,根據聯合國(UN)資料,武漢也是全球第42大城,重要幹道超過20條,還有數十條小型聯外道路。就算大眾運輸停擺,要完全隔離武漢還是得出動大規模軍力。

澳洲雪梨大學(University of Sydney)衛生安全專家康瑞特-史考特(Adam Kamradt-Scott)說:「唯一能辦到的方法,實際上就是出動解放軍圍住這座城市。」

但即使當局真的出動解放軍,能否做到全面隔離仍有疑慮。因為武漢跟多數現代城市相似,都是不規則地往周邊較小城鎮與村莊延伸。

雪梨大學流行病專家普洛柯潘柯(Mikhail Prokopenko)指出:「你無法真的封鎖每條道路和對外聯繫。雖有可能做到某種程度,但絕非萬無一失。」

世界衛生組織(WHO)駐中國代表蓋立(Gauden Galea)則表示:「就我所知,試圖圍住一座擁有1100萬人的城市,科學界前所未聞。過去不曾把這種方法當作公衛措施,現階段我們還無法確定能否奏效。」

但英國諾丁罕大學(University of Nottingham)病毒學教授包爾(Jonathan Ball)認為,從科學角度來看,封城似乎有其道理。他說:「在更了解情況以前,我認為這並非不合理作法。爆發疫情時,任何限制人們旅行的做法顯然會有效果。」

但包爾也提醒這類隔離措施必須嚴格設定時間限制。他說:「你必須確保能以採取這項措施的原因進行有效溝通,否則就會失去民意。」

2014年,西非地區爆發伊波拉病毒(Ebola)疫情時,獅子山共和國就曾實施全國隔離措施3天,公衛人員逐戶尋找潛藏病例。能自由移動的人只有處理遺體的人員,以及把病患送到伊波拉管控中心的人士。當時有民眾感到失望,並抱怨食物短缺。

另外在2009年4月,墨西哥首都墨西哥市(Mexico City)為抑制新型流感疫情,也曾下令關閉酒吧、電影院、劇院、足球場和教堂,餐廳僅限提供外帶服務。

康瑞特-史考特則說:「此舉顯然使墨西哥市的病毒擴散速度變慢,有助當局控制局面。但疫情完全止住了嗎?沒有。」

世界衛生組織已將武漢不明肺炎的病毒定名為「2019新型冠狀病毒」(2019-nCoV)。迄今武漢肺炎已造成中國境內26人死亡,確診病例超過800多例。(譯者:楊昭彥/核稿:陳彥鈞)

(中央社加德滿都24日綜合外電報導)尼泊爾衛生當局官員今天表示,一名在中國求學的尼泊爾學生近日返國,並檢驗出對新型冠狀病毒呈陽性反應,這是尼泊爾首宗武漢肺炎確診病例。

尼泊爾衛生當局發言人希瑞斯塔(Mahendra Shrestha)告訴路透社:「一名患者的冠狀病毒檢測呈陽性反應。他是一名在中國讀書的尼泊爾學生。」

尼泊爾衛生當局的聲明指出,這名學生近日趁著春節假期從武漢市返國。目前他受到監控,曾跟他密切接觸的人也正接受調查。

世界衛生組織(WHO)已將武漢肺炎的病毒定名為「2019新型冠狀病毒」(2019-nCoV)。

目前武漢肺炎在中國境內已有800多起確診病例,並造成26人喪命。(譯者:陳彥鈞)

(中央社記者江今葉華盛頓24日專電)美國疾病管制暨預防中心(CDC)今天宣布,確診第2例武漢肺炎病例,是一名甫自中國武漢返回芝加哥的60多歲女性。

美國疾病管制暨預防中心今天表示,這名女性是在去年12月前往武漢,於上週返回美國出現病徵。目前她正接受隔離治療,情況穩定。CDC也正在密切追蹤其他63起疑似病例。

這是繼21日西雅圖出現第一起2019新型冠狀病毒(2019-nCoV)肺炎後,美國境內第2起確診病例。昨天晚間,德州也傳出一名自武漢返美的大學生出現相關病徵,當地醫院正在確診中。(編輯:陳彥鈞)

(中央社記者陳怡璇台北24日電)武漢肺炎疫情,中央流行疫情指揮中心晚間表示,新增2例確診,分別為50多歲中國籍女性及50多歲男性國人,台灣累計共3例確診。10湖北團已盡快安排離境。

中央流行疫情指揮中心晚間公布,新增確診2例境外移入嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎個案。分別為50多歲中國籍女性(案1)及50多歲男性國人(案2),皆為1月21日入境;案1為1月23日因發燒就醫,案2於1月20日出現感冒症狀、於1月23日就醫。

交通部觀光局長周永暉表示,案1為跟團來台旅遊,全團共18人,原本預計28日離開,現在全團活動已立即暫停並回到飯店;中央流行疫情指揮中心執行官周志浩表示,其他團員沒有出現症狀。

案2則為台商,本人以為是感冒、有在當地就診並服用止咳退燒藥物,回台灣後直接回家休息,昨天才去就醫,外出皆有戴口罩。

中央流行疫情指揮中心表示,目前共有10團湖北旅遊團、共158人在台灣,已在盡速安排離境,但適逢過年、中國又多處封城,會請交通部民航局協助安排合適的航班。

指揮中心表示,案1密切接觸者計19人,案2密切接觸者計11人,目前健康狀況皆良好;其餘相關接觸者疫調中,衛生單位將持續進行主動健康監測。

截至1月24日下午4時,國內嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎新增35例通報,截至目前共通報168名嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎個案,檢驗結果為3名確診(1例1月21日已公布)、42名排除、23例初驗陰性、其餘仍待檢驗。(編輯:李亨山)

China’s move to lock down 10 cities to control the spread of a new coronavirus is unprecedented in modern history and its effectiveness is hard to predict, public health experts say.

In Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, the train station and airport were shut down on Thursday, while ferry, subway and bus service ground to a halt.

Trying to contain a city of 11 million people is “new to science,” said Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization’s representative in China. “We cannot at this stage say it will or it will not work.”

Similar measures were announced in other cities, all in central China’s Hubei province.

Mass gatherings were forbidden just as hundreds of millions of people prepared to travel and celebrate the Lunar New Year.

“That’s just incredible,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician at Toronto General Hospital. “The equivalent would be shutting down transportation to a comparable sized city like London, United Kingdom on Dec. 23.”

But its effectiveness depends in part on how many “chains of transmission” have occurred.

Like branches of a tree trunk, each chain of infection represents one person infecting someone else. Many chains of infection usually means more people are infected and an outbreak is widespread, he said.

If there have already been secondary chains outside Wuhan, then shutting down the transportation might slow the spread of the virus, but not stop it in its tracks.

Bioethicist Kerry Bowman of the University of Toronto says quarantines can be effective in the early stages of an outbreak.

The rub is, in this case, the quarantine pits individual freedoms against an entire city’s.

“This may be acceptable to people if it’s short term,” Bowman said.

For China, the question becomes who does the quarantine serve, says Ann Carmichael, a professor emerita of history at Indiana University who studies quarantines during the 17th century outbreaks of plague in Europe.

Back then, she says, people would be killed for the tiniest infraction of public health laws, like not burning clothing as ordered. The word “quarantine” comes from the Italian quaranta giorni (“40 days”), which referred to a period of isolation placed on ships and people in a bid to control the Black Death.

These days, says Carmichael, “I think what the Chinese government is always thinking about is — when does panic make it worse, and what is a measured response?” she said.

Panic is a possible side-effect of a quarantine, says Dr. Tom Solomon, who heads the U.K.’s Health Protection Research Unit on emerging infections. He says stopping all public transport from a city can be counterproductive.

“It can increase the level of panic and just cause people to flee by other means,” Solomon wrote in a recent commentary.

It can also send people into hiding. Solomon gave the example of the village of Eyam in north England where, in the Middle Ages, residents built a wall during an outbreak of plague and didn’t leave until it ended.

Back then, outbreaks of plague, cholera and yellow fever provided a reason for one country to interfere in another’s affairs. It wasn’t until the 19th century that countries began to co-operate more officially on global health problems.

And today, says Carmichael, the world needs answers to questions — like whether this new coronavirus is poised to cause a pandemic, like the 1918 influenza.

More recent infections prompted a range of responses. During HIV/AIDS, the World Health Organization did not get involved in quarantines or border restrictions, Carmichael said.

During the SARS outbreak in Ontario, hospitals and long-term care homes practised a form of quarantine — with daily temperature checks for staff and a ban on visitors.

In contrast, after SARS, Canada helped to revise International Health Regulations to avoid unnecessary restrictions on travel and trade.

Carmichael said part of the history and practice of quarantine is “keeping in” — detention, confinement and isolation. The other is “keeping out” — border security, masks on persons and aggressive hand washing.

Health officials in Canada and the U.S. continue to emphasize hand hygiene.